The Policy Implications of Inaccurate Exit Polls: Examining the Lok Sabha elections in India

About the author: Saanvi Fatehpuria is a dedicated and compassionate young woman who has been competing at the national level in India as an equestrian. Raised by a family who taught her to always fight for her rights and empowerment as a woman, she wishes to make a positive impact on the world through community work in gender rights. Currently, Saanvi is enrolled in Grade 12 at the Modern High School for Girls in India. She aspires to enroll for an undergraduate program in Political Science and work in the field of public policy.

Introduction

India is the largest democracy in the world, and citizens can vote based on adult franchise. In other words, any Indian citizen can register as a voter and cast their votes upon reaching the age of 18 (Shani, 2018). People from different parts of the country cast their votes to choose the “real head of the country” the Prime Minister for the next 5 years (Palshikar and Suri, 2014). Exit polls are surveys conducted by various agencies to predict election results based on voters’ opinions (Barthwal et al. 2024). However, incorrect exit polls can lead to confusion and it becomes a challenging task to predict the outcomes of an election correctly. This research report, therefore, will attempt to assess the inaccuracy of the exit polls in the context of the Lok Sabha in India. Simultaneously, the potential factors leading to such inaccuracies will also be discussed in this research report.

Literature Review

Concept of Exit Polls

Exit polls are defined as surveys conducted immediately as voters leave polling booths or stations (Hilmer, 2008). Exit polls are different from pre-election opinion polls in which voting results are predicted. Apart from that, pre-election polls are conducted to evaluate the overall conditions in which people are going to vote (Mishra and Jain, 2000). Such polls are also useful to understand what people have to say regarding different political parties and their respective candidates who are participating in such elections (Heath and Ziegfeld, 2018). This helps identify the potential candidates who might win the elections. On the other hand, exit polls are more accurate in predicting the election results owing to the time of their conduction. Exit polls are conducted after an election is held. Considering the change in the minds of people before and after the elections, exit polls are necessary to identify the patterns in people’s choice of candidates more accurately than pre-election polls (Willnat and Aw, 2009). Exit polls gather data from every possible person including their age, demographics, and the factors that they kept in mind while voting (Jain and Kumar, 2017). Such factors may include the performance of the current government, the potential of other parties, and their overall inclination towards any specific political ideology.

Role of Exit Polls in Indian Elections

Exit polls are like measuring tools that help assess or measure the likely outcomes of an election held recently (Heath and Ziegfeld, 2018). In the context of India, which is a large country with arguably the highest population in the world, conducting elections at such a level is itself a challenge. The diversity among people from different regions and states of the country influences their political ideologies (Willnat and Aw, 2009). They think differently and it is a challenge to forecast the results of elections held at the national level like the Lok Sabha elections. In such cases, pre-election polls cannot be effective unless the opinions are collected from voters after they cast their votes. As opined by Kumar, Rai, and Gupta (2016), exit polls are an essential part of the modern electoral process in India that helps in developing immediate insights into election results. Hence, exit polls serve the purpose of a critical tool for political analysts, media organisations, as well as, the general public to evaluate the results of an election prior to the completion of the official counts (Hilmer, 2008). Therefore, it becomes noticeable that exit polls become useful in predicting the results of elections in India to some extent.

Inaccuracies in Exit Polls in Indian Elections

Some of the common issues that can affect the accuracy of exit polls in Indian elections include sampling errors, non–response biases, incorrect time, and human error among others (Groves and Lyberg, 2010). Exit polls depend on samples of voters and the sample may not represent the entire voting population. Therefore, the chance of getting a skewed result increases with incorrect sampling. On the other hand, Swyngedouw (2001) some people may not be willing to participate in exit polls, and if the voting patterns of these non-respondents do not match that of respondents, the chance is high that the result of the exit polls will be high and such an incident is quite common in the context of the Indian elections. Timing is another factor that influences the accuracy of exit polls (Selb et al. 2013). As opined by Restrepo, Rael, and Hyman (2009), exit polls are influenced by changing demographics. Exit polls are conducted throughout the day, whereas voter turnout can vary at different times which is quite common in the context of Indian elections (Banerjee, 2011). As demographics change with time, it can impact the results of exit polls. The impact of human error can also not be ignored in this respect. Bjarnegård (2018) stated that the process of data collection may be affected due to mistakes made by the data collecting agency or due to the unwillingness of the participants to share correct information with the concerned agencies.

Methodology

The Inductive Approach was applied to conduct this research which has helped open the scope for this research to develop new theories based on the findings of this research (Thomas, 2006). It also helped the researcher observe things to conclude. New possibilities could be explored with the adoption of the Inductive Approach in this research (Kuczynski and Daly, 2003). The participation of the researcher in this research was enhanced as the Inductive Approach was followed. It also created natural curiosity and it also fostered a scientific mindset that helped data exploration with the promotion of a learning-by-doing approach (Kun, Mulder, and Kortuem, 2020). This helped enhance the quality of this research. The Exploratory Design helped conduct this study. Since qualitative data was used in this research, the Exploratory Design was meaningful for it (Lin et al. 2004). As more data was explored, it became useful for the researcher to use the same to understand the incorrectness in exit polls of Indian Lok Sabha elections. Data exploration helped use data in this study and complete it (Orina et al. 2015). The scope for a critical data analysis increased, and it became helpful to make the research free from biases which would have not been possible if the Explanatory or Descriptive Design had been applied. 

Data was collected from secondary sources and data relevant to this research was gathered from newspaper articles, reports, journal articles, and other sources of information (Johnston, 2014). While collecting the data, it was ensured that only peer-reviewed articles were collected and reputed sources were used to collect data. Data published on various sources including websites were also used to complete this study. Since time was limited, it was necessary to complete this research using secondary data (Sørensen, Sabroe, and Olsen, 1996). It also helped save costs as only free data was availed and used for this research.  Only qualitative data was collected for this research. Therefore, it was not possible to analyse the data using any statistical method. Rather, the Thematic Analysis approach was used for data analysis (Vaismoradi, Turunen, and Bondas, 2013). Themes were developed and the collected data were analysed under such themes so that the research aims mentioned in the Introduction section could be accomplished.

Findings

Causes behind incorrect exit polls in Lok Sabha elections of India

As reported in The Hindu newspaper, it has been identified that around 1 billion people participate in Lok Sabha elections (The Hindu, 2024). Therefore, conducting exit polls that can include all the voters is a challenging task. For the time being, it is only possible to survey only a portion of voters that causes biases to be in the exit polls. Some pieces of evidence show that exit polls went wrong in the Lok Sabha elections of 2004, 2014, and 2024 (KL, 2024). There are certain reasons for the mismatch between exit polls and actual results in Lok Sabha elections in India. Limited resources are a factor that affects the overall scale of exit polls and also impedes the overall correctness of exit polls (Business Standard, 2024). It is also identified that poll results of one state are used to predict the results of Lok Sabha. As identified by Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, poll results of one state cannot be a referendum for other elections (The Print, 2024). The win of a political party in a state cannot determine its stand on the national level which becomes a major factor in the incorrect results in exit polls. In other words, it can be stated that the generalisation of election results in one state to the national level affects the correctness of exit polls. On the other hand, it is also identified that voters may not always be truthful in reporting their votes (Rai, 2021). They might hide their preferences for political parties due to political fears and other factors. These also distort the exit polls in India. Incorrect sampling may yield incorrect exit polls and representatives should be included from every state of India, which is often ignored due to limited time and resources (Bloomberg, 2024). This also affects exit polls in the arena of Indian Lok Sabha elections.

Potential impacts of wrong exit polls on the Indian policy landscape

Incorrect exit polls have several impacts on India’s socio-political arena of India. For instance, incorrect polls can mislead people regarding the likely outcome of an election which influences their voting behaviour (Dawson, 2024). In the context of India, since Lok Sabha elections are held in a phased manner, people cannot make voting decisions as they are influenced by the exit polls conducted across other regions where votes are already done (Deccan Herald, 2024). This may lead to distrust or illusion among people if they notice that exit polls are consistently incorrect. Financial markets also rely largely on the results of exit polls. Hence, any inaccurate result can lead to financial market failure in the short run. As identified by Bajaj (2023), investors may reduce investment if they are not sure about the political future of India which can affect the share market as well. In the context of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) was expected to get more than 400 seats and form a government with an absolute majority, new investments were made and the share market was showing positive growth (Reuters, 2024). However, the result of the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 was different for BJP. Although it could form the government, it did not enjoy any absolute majority. Rather, it has to depend on other allies to form the government for the next 5 years. As a result, the share market of the country showed a rapid fall posing several threats to the economic growth, employment, and inflation of the country (CNN, 2024). As identified the trust of the investors was somewhat affected as BJP could not win the majority which was quite unbelievable for them as it was expected that BJP would get at least 400 Lok Sabha seats which did not happen (Business Insider, 2024). Exit polls showed inaccuracy, which led to wrong expectations and became a factor that affected the economy of the country to an extent.

The Comparison between Exit Polls Data and Lok Sabha Election Results in India for 2004, 2014, 2019, and 2024

Figure 4.1: Difference Between Exit Polls Results and Final Results in Lok Sabha Elections of 2004

(Source: Chandrasekhar, 2004)

As depicted in Figure 4.1, NDA received 68 fewer seats than what was apprehended based on the exit polls. Congress and its allies received 36 more seats than what was expected based on the exit polls (Chandrasekhar, 2004). Others also received 32 more seats than the speculation made in exit polls in the Lok Sabha election of 2004.

Figure 4.2: Difference Between Exit Polls Results and Final Results in Lok Sabha Elections of 2014

(Source: The Indian Express, 2024)

As Figure 4.2 represents, NDA received 53 more seats than was actually predicted based on the exit polls conducted by various agencies. The Lok Sabha elections of 2014 depicted that UPA received 60 fewer seats in the elections than the anticipated 105 seats in the exit polls (The Indian Express, 2024).

Figure 4.3: Difference Between Exit Polls Results and Final Results in Lok Sabha Elections of 2019

(Source: Times of India, 2024)

The exit polls and the election results of Lok Sabha, 2019 have different results as can be seen from Figure 4.3. Congress was expected to get 132 seats as per the exit polls, but it received only 52 seats (Times of India, 2024). The seats of the BJP were predicted more or less accurately and there was a difference of 3 seats between exit polls and the actual Lok Sabha elections results.

Figure 4.4: Lok Sabha Election Results of 2024

(Source: Ramesh and Rai, 2024)

Figure 4.5: Exit Polls of 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

(Source: India Today, 2024)

If Figure 4.4 and Figure 4.5 are compared, it can be noticed that NDA received 95 fewer seats as was apprehended from the exit polls. It was estimated that Others would only receive 42 seats as per the exit polls (India Today, 2024; Ramesh and Rai, 2024). However, the actual election results show that they got 100 seats in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024.

Conclusion

Based on the entire research report, it can be stated as a conclusion that exit polls yield inaccurate results that do not predict the results of Lok Sabha elections in India properly. Inaccurate data, limited resources, and inaccurate sample selections are some of the reasons causing exit polls to generate results that are not accurate. This has great socio-political policy impacts in India. However, it should be mentioned that exit polls still remain relevant to get an insight into which party can be in power that will determine the future of the country.

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